![]() ![]() No matter how sophisticated our Earth system models may be, the quality of the forecasts they produce crucially depends on the accuracy of the initial conditions. It culminated in the operational implementation of 4D-Var on 25 November 1997, less than two years after the introduction of 3D-Var.Ī symposium to mark the 20th anniversary will be held at ECMWF on 26 January.ĮCMWF Director-General Florence Rabier, ECMWF scientists Massimo Bonavita and Tony McNally, and Professor Olivier Talagrand explain how 4D-Var works and why it is so important for numerical weather prediction. This pioneering ‘4D-Var’ technique has led to substantial improvements in the Centre’s forecasts.ĭeveloping a 4D variational data assimilation system was one of ECMWF’s biggest-ever projects. Twenty years ago ECMWF added an extra dimension – time – to the assimilation of observational data into weather models.
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